The Scientific Method Today

Simon Bolivar - Five republics of South America term him father of their independence. He faced the problem of how to free his country (Venezuela) from colonial oppression.

When one hypothesis failed, he generated another and another until he finally succeeded. Leadership requires problem origination, solving, challenge, and action.

Benjamin Franklin is well known for his famous kite experiment in which he explored the nature of lightning.

He gathered evidence, formed a hypothesis, and in 1749 after performing his dangerous kite experiment, Franklin concluded that lightning is an electric charge.

Stage #7:

MAKE THE EDUCATED GUESS
(HYPOTHESIS)

Review the starting guides at the beginning of Stage #6. Your educated guess, technically The Hypothesis, is a proposed solution to the most recent definition of your problem. It is your choice of the most-likely-to-be-successful solution from the list of contending ones which you have evaluated.

• The hypothesis is often called "the educated guess," because scientists have long recognized the difficulty of arriving at the real "truth."
• Working hypothesis" is a term used to describe this proposed solution. It is only a "candidate for truth," as it must always be challenged under Stage #8.
• A hypothesis would be a theory of nature in scientific fields. In other fields, it could be a decision, plan, diagnosed illness, idea, design, invention, etc.
• More than one hypothesis (hypotheses) - you might propose more than one solution. Problems in the social sciences often require several hypotheses.
• A perfect solution is seldom obtained in solving complex problems.
• Inductive reasoning has helped you to reach your hypothesis. (See Stage #14)
• Valuable even if proven false - a hypothesis may often bewrong but may eventually lead to a discovery, a new field to explore, or a modification of the hypothesis.

These are desirable but not always essential or possible:

Now that you have chosen a hypothesis, you must make predictions of why and how something will occur, based on the accuracy of your hypothesis. Testing these predictions helps you challenge, verify, justify, or falsify your hypothesis in Stage #8. Then others can do so after you take action at Stage #11.

• If change is made, consequences will be ...
• If experiment is made, it will show ...
• If reasoned out, results will be ...
• If cost and benefits are computed, they will show ...
• If survey or interview is conducted, it will show ...
• If mathematical computation is made using certain data, it will show ...
• If a model is made, this will happen ...
• If a computer simulation is programmed, it will show ...