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The Scientific Method Today

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While working as a patent attorney, Chester F. Carlson decided to design a fast, easy, and inexpensive way to make copies of text and line drawings.

After challenging several hypotheses, he successfully produced the first xerographic copy in 1937 and was issued his first patent in 1940.

This invention added billions of dollars to gross national product.



Dr. Percey L. Julian, by synthesis of the drug physostigmine, brought the healing drug cortisone within the reach of millions.

He defeated the challenge of a British rival and proved his theory. Dr. Julian's appointment to head The Glidden Company's research marked the turning point in acceptance of black scientists in the United States.

Stage #8 :

CHALLENGE THE HYPOTHESIS


Review the Starting Guides Listed
at the Beginning of Stage #6.

The degree of challenge to your hypothesis will depend on the type of problem and its importance. It can range from just seeking "a good enough " solution (but not a haphazard or lazy one) to the much more rigorous challenge

To accommodate a broad range, Dr. Crooks used the term "Challenge." Most of the old formulas for "The Scientific Method" use the terms verification, justification, refutability, validity, rectification, falsification, testing the theories, test prediction, experimentation to test, look back, and many similar terms, indicating that the hypothesis should be challenged.

Experimenting, Testing, & Challenging the Hypothesis

  • Falsification: Sir Karl Popper advocates trying to prove a hypothesis to be false rather than trying to prove it right. This may save time and avoid bias.


  • Verification: Many disagree with his falsification theory and believe various methods should be used to verify the hypothesis.


  • Who Is Right?: This is an extremely controversial and difficult question to answer. Try both approaches mentioned above. Gather evidence both for and against your hypothesis.


  • Predictions: Use to challenge your hypothesis. Under Ingredient #7, you made certain predictions that resulted from your hypothesis. The way to challenge your hypothesis is to try to prove these false, probably true, or supported.


  • Modify Your Hypothesis: In testing your predictions, if you find something wrong, backtrack to Stage #7, modify your hypothesis, and change your predictions. If it fails completely, backtrack to Stage #4 or #5. We learn from failures.


  • Control Variables: Vary one thing at a time - make notes on each.

Repeatability of Your Tests & Experiments:
For your hypothesis to be accepted by others, your testing results must be able to be repeated by you and those who will want to verify your theory.

Log all tests Results must fit known "facts"
Be accurate Report unknowns
Review data Control stress
Results must be consistent Try for simplicity
Get advice Use sampling
Use statistical verification Use math
Experiments must be complete enough

Other Suggestions:

  • Fault Tree - Prepare one on how your hypothesis or tests can possibley fail.
  • Alternate Hypothesis - Be curious, observant, and alert for a better hypothesis.
  • Dis-Confirming Evidence - Don't ignore, follow up. Be critical.
  • Competing Hypotheses - Verify by eliminating these, but remain flexible.
  • Some Hypotheses Not Verifiable - When in social science, geological fields, etc.
  • Consequences and Contingencies - What results from your hypothesis?


Predicting & Prevention

Prediction has always been a big feature of the scientific method, whenever it is used. Once a working hypothesis is arrived at, you make predictons to challenge what will happen if they are correct. From them, you can do tests and experiments to determine whether these are correct or false.

Forecasting the Future

Forecasting the future is extremely difficult. Plain guesses and gut intuition are often used but not very reliable. Actually, there is no reliable method. But, of all the methods, the most reliable one is to follow the stages of the scientific method.

Prevention

While the scientific method is famous for its use in discoveries, it is also the method of prevention.

It is not logical to wait till problems develop or till decisions have to be made after trouble occurs. Therefore, the use of curious observation (Stage #1 of SM-14) must also be used to look for things that may happen and that need to be prevented.

The importance of prevention and forecasting are more reasons why everyone should learn and be taught the scientific method.


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